Search This Blog

Monday, November 1, 2010

$EURUSD Intraday Analysis

Hello everybody,
As I said in my last article EURUSD should touch 1.4000 early this week, it can be seen it bounced off 1.4 and now is head through the south.
We have got a new trendline here and sellers beware of this trendline, I think this pair can rest little bit near the green ellipse in the chart and in case of breaking the trendline I will go short to see the pair near the red ellipse.

And just remember that this week we'll have Currency world war, so use tight stops in your trades.

Regards

Saturday, October 30, 2010

$EURAUD $CADJPY $EURJPY $EURUSD Range Trade And Breakout Possibility

Dear traders,
I want to inform you about four great opportunities in the currency market.
Absolutely after strong trends in the market we have consolidations and so we can trade in many short and long positions.
The most important phase of trading is to recognize formation of the market, There are two major phases that we should recognize : 1)Trending Market  2)Range Market

Trending Market have got its own strategies and these strategies DO NOT work on Range markets and vice verse for strategies involved in Range Markets.
Therefore you have to specify these phases in every trades you are going to take.

OK, Let's get started.
EURUSD:
After a strong bullish trend in EURUSD, now we can see that single currency is going sideways between 1.3700 and 1.4000.
In the first chart above there is the H4 chart of this pair.
Lines #1 and #2 have made a descending channel and Lines #1 and #3 have made a symmetrical triangle, all of them have made this pair to go up and down many times.

EURUSD is exactly in the middle of that triangle and however I don't like to trade in these situations as the pair is in the "No Mans Land" area, that big bullish engulfing candle shows us that we can see 1.4000 again in the first days of the week ahead.

So, wait for the price to retest the upper #1 trendline and I like to see another long tail around that line and a nice bearish H4 candle to go short there.
In the other hand it can be a breakout, when you are trading in a range market then you should watch carefully if a breakout is going to take place.

CADJPY:
In this pair exactly we have a narrow range between line #3 and #4.
I have to say that when we have a narrow range I don't like to trade in the channel and go short and long for small profits as in these cases breakout is likely to happen sooner.
So, there isn't any signals in this pair now but when price goes beyond the line #3 or below the line #4 then it is an indication of a breakout. I like a candle to close (It's important, TO CLOSE) beyond or below that levels for a breakout situation.

EURAUD:
It's around 20 days that this pair is in a 220pips-Range situation.
Price is between two Lines : #1 and #2 and sometimes price was bounced off the Middle line too.
So in this case the strategy goes this way: When price is exactly around line #1 or #2 then look for a bearish candle to close below the low of the previous candle(In case of touching the line #1) or a bullish candle to close beyond the high of the previous candle(In case of touching the line #2) and go short and long respectively.
In case of a short signal you should set two profit targets, one is exactly the Middle line and the second is line #2 and in case of a long signal, Middle line and line #1 should be your targets.

Time of a range market is too important, it's a long time that this pair is in a range market and now a breakout is likely to happen, so watch the price action around those lines and do exactly what I said in the CADJPY analysis.

EURJPY:
We have got a strong support line in this pair (Line #2) and a short-term resistant line (Line #1). Price is going sideways between these two lines and now it is exactly near the support line and has formed a nice bullish engulfing pattern yesterday.
So wait for a H4 candle to close beyond 112.10 (Previous High) and go long to see 112.65 for the first target and 113.75 for the second one. Remember that when price goes to the middle line then move your stops to break-even for the second position.

In the other hand when that strong support line is broken then we can see a sharp move to the downhill.

Regards

Friday, October 29, 2010

$EURUSD Short Setup

As I said before 1.3900 and around would be good levels to go short.
EU exactly bounced off the 61.8% and now again there is a sharp bearish move.
I said in twitter that wait for a confirmation, my confirmation was that nice bearish H4 candle that closed below the low of the previous candle, so I went short at 1.3906.
I'm looking for 1.3750 for my first profit target and 1.3580 for the last.

Regards

Thursday, October 28, 2010

$USDCHF possible trade

This pair is on a short-term bullish trend and still we can't say that the overall trend is bullish.
But we can trade it exactly near the trendline. Again there was a retest of this trendline near 6 hours before and If the price goes beyond 0.9860 then we can go long to see 0.9920 again for our first profit target and near 1.000 for second profit target and our stop will be around 0.9800.
In other case we can go short when the trendline is broken.

Good luck

Unemployment Claims and $EURUSD

Dear traders,

EU finally found support near 1.3730 and now is going through 1.3900.
Fibonacci retracement levels shows us that 1.3865 and 1.3900 are 38.2% and 50% of that sharp bearish move in this pair.
I like it to go through the 50% of Fibo as it is around 38.2% now. But we have got an important economic indicator release today that I think any positive changes in the US. Unemployment Claims will empower US bulls and we can see another sharp bearish move to near 1.3580.

So wait for 8:30 EDT and after a positive change in jobless claims we can go short again. But it's better to go short after a bearish candle in H1 and just beware of sharp moves near that time and I don't like to trade around news releases.
There will be another good opportunity to go short if the new trendline(you can see it in the chart) be broken and go short to see 1.3580.

In other case I think any negative changes in the jobless claims will shoot the pair to around 1.4000 again.
Remember that bearish moves in this pair need recovery in the US economics untill sentiment of people goes through Bullish Dollar and then we can see a great bearish trend in this pair.

Regards

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

$EURUSD Latest Analysis

Dear traders,

We had got a great short signal on this pair as you can see in the chart with near 200pips profit.
Now single currency found support around 1.3770 (former support in H4 chart).
Price is still beyond 1.3770 and I think we can see 1.3900 level again and all former support lines that are now resistant lines are through the way.
So I like it to go below that support line to short it again. I'm also looking exactly at 1.3900 if price reaches that level.

Regards

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

$EURUSD Trade setup

Hello everybody,
Please before reading this article have a look at my previous analysis on this pair here.
It can be seen in hourly chart above that the trendline was broken yesterday afternoon and a retrace to retest that trendline from below was a confirmation of a short signal.
Trendline strategies go this way, after a trendline is broken then wait for a retest of that broken trendline and after forming a candle in your desired way then go through the market.
So 1.3959 was a good point to go short and around 1.3900 is my first profit target and looking exactly for the price action near 1.3900.I think below 1.3900, Bears will pick the pace up to shoot single currency to around 1.3700.

Good luck.