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Saturday, October 30, 2010

$EURAUD $CADJPY $EURJPY $EURUSD Range Trade And Breakout Possibility

Dear traders,
I want to inform you about four great opportunities in the currency market.
Absolutely after strong trends in the market we have consolidations and so we can trade in many short and long positions.
The most important phase of trading is to recognize formation of the market, There are two major phases that we should recognize : 1)Trending Market  2)Range Market

Trending Market have got its own strategies and these strategies DO NOT work on Range markets and vice verse for strategies involved in Range Markets.
Therefore you have to specify these phases in every trades you are going to take.

OK, Let's get started.
EURUSD:
After a strong bullish trend in EURUSD, now we can see that single currency is going sideways between 1.3700 and 1.4000.
In the first chart above there is the H4 chart of this pair.
Lines #1 and #2 have made a descending channel and Lines #1 and #3 have made a symmetrical triangle, all of them have made this pair to go up and down many times.

EURUSD is exactly in the middle of that triangle and however I don't like to trade in these situations as the pair is in the "No Mans Land" area, that big bullish engulfing candle shows us that we can see 1.4000 again in the first days of the week ahead.

So, wait for the price to retest the upper #1 trendline and I like to see another long tail around that line and a nice bearish H4 candle to go short there.
In the other hand it can be a breakout, when you are trading in a range market then you should watch carefully if a breakout is going to take place.

CADJPY:
In this pair exactly we have a narrow range between line #3 and #4.
I have to say that when we have a narrow range I don't like to trade in the channel and go short and long for small profits as in these cases breakout is likely to happen sooner.
So, there isn't any signals in this pair now but when price goes beyond the line #3 or below the line #4 then it is an indication of a breakout. I like a candle to close (It's important, TO CLOSE) beyond or below that levels for a breakout situation.

EURAUD:
It's around 20 days that this pair is in a 220pips-Range situation.
Price is between two Lines : #1 and #2 and sometimes price was bounced off the Middle line too.
So in this case the strategy goes this way: When price is exactly around line #1 or #2 then look for a bearish candle to close below the low of the previous candle(In case of touching the line #1) or a bullish candle to close beyond the high of the previous candle(In case of touching the line #2) and go short and long respectively.
In case of a short signal you should set two profit targets, one is exactly the Middle line and the second is line #2 and in case of a long signal, Middle line and line #1 should be your targets.

Time of a range market is too important, it's a long time that this pair is in a range market and now a breakout is likely to happen, so watch the price action around those lines and do exactly what I said in the CADJPY analysis.

EURJPY:
We have got a strong support line in this pair (Line #2) and a short-term resistant line (Line #1). Price is going sideways between these two lines and now it is exactly near the support line and has formed a nice bullish engulfing pattern yesterday.
So wait for a H4 candle to close beyond 112.10 (Previous High) and go long to see 112.65 for the first target and 113.75 for the second one. Remember that when price goes to the middle line then move your stops to break-even for the second position.

In the other hand when that strong support line is broken then we can see a sharp move to the downhill.

Regards

2 comments:

  1. sickatfx here. The only pair here you should look at is $EURUSD. It is about to scream higher. USDX is about to take major fall. It looks exactly like how it did when I said EURUSD 14000 at 12800. I expect it to gain about 600 pips this week alone and that is being safe... real safe

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  2. Thanks for your comment sickatfx.However EURUSD is likely to move higher but I don't like to predict the market, You should analyze the market NOT to predict it.
    If that trendline going to be broken then I will go long.
    Thanks

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